The hottest supply and demand both fell, and cotto

  • Detail

Under the background of the opening of the interest rate hike channel in the United States and the structural reform of the domestic economy, we predict that China will continue to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy in 2016, support the structural reform of the domestic economy, or cut interest rates or reserve requirements, which may have two impacts on cotton: first, the cost of capital of textile enterprises will decline, stimulating the demand for cotton by textile enterprises; Second, the central bank's interest rate cut will narrow the internal and external interest rate gap, or lead to the depreciation of the RMB, which will have a direct impact on the mainland's textile industry to enhance its international competitiveness

according to the report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the global cotton output in 2015/2016 will reach 23.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, and the consumption will be 24.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.54%. The cotton inventory at the beginning of the period is 21.92 million tons, and the ending inventory is 20.65 million tons. We believe that the global cotton inventory will take several years or more to digest, and the huge inventory pressure will hinder the rise of international cotton prices. We expect that the channel inventory will continue to rise in the second half of 2011 and 2018. The global cotton planting area in 5/16 will be slightly reduced by about 2% compared with the previous year

in 2015, the total output of cotton in China was 5.605 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; The total consumption was about 7.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.25%, and the ending inventory was about 11.98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.77%. Due to the sharp decline in cotton prices in the past three years, when it fell below the planting cost, the confidence of cotton planting was frustrated and it will take a long time to repair. It is expected that the attractiveness of competing alternative crops (grains and soybeans) will continue to improve in 2016. It is estimated that the national cotton output in 2016 is about 5.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; The total consumption of cotton was about 7.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%

we predict that there will be a shortage of about 2.5 million tons of cotton in 2016, but the inventory is still near the high level of 12million tons. The task of destocking has not yet ended, and the downstream market has not been changed. The operating steps are as follows: good, there is no room for cotton prices to rise sharply in 2016, but it does not rule out a partial rebound. On the whole, I planned an inspection and testing center with an area of more than 1000 square meters. The inspection and testing centers believed that the cotton price was still in the low and wide range fluctuation pattern of the bear market cycle. Only when the de stocking in the later stage was improved, the cost and income of planting cotton were improved and the situation was good, so that the whole cotton industry began to turn profitable, could cotton get out of the bear market and usher in a sustained rebound momentum

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI