The hottest supply and demand is basically good, a

Supply and demand are basically well oriented, and the medium-term rise tone of PTA remains unchanged.

I. Market Review

in October 2010, Zhengzhou PTA futures market as a whole continued its previous upward trend, which is mainly supported by its good fundamentals. In addition, international crude oil rose sharply and successfully stood above the $80/barrel line. Countries actively implemented quantitative easing policies and inflation expectations, which strongly stimulated the rapid rise of the commodity market. In addition, the domestic stock market rose sharply after the National Day holiday, forming a linkage with the futures market, and out of a wave of hot market. With the good performance of polyester during the holiday and the rising trend of the outer market, Zhengzhou PTA, In addition, the crazy surge in cotton prices closed six consecutive Suns at one fell swoop and hit 8868 yuan/ton, the highest level since August 2008. On October 19, due to the unexpected announcement of the Central Bank of China to raise the deposit and loan interest rates, which pushed up the dollar and triggered concerns that the demand for raw materials might slow down, New York crude oil fell below $80 a barrel, dragging Zhengzhou PTA down from the high of 8868 yuan/ton to around 8450 yuan/ton. As the market digested the news from the central bank, the US dollar resumed its decline, boosting the PTA futures price in Zhengzhou to rebound upward. As of October 26, the main contract ta110 opened at 8270 yuan/ton in January, with a maximum of 8868 yuan/ton, a minimum of 8270 yuan/ton, and a monthly closing price of 8768 yuan/ton. The trading range was significantly higher than that in September

Zhengzhou PTA trading in October 2010 (10..26) unit: yuan/ton, 5 tons per hand

Contract

monthly opening price

monthly opening price

lowest price

closing price

transaction (hand)

position (hand)

settlement price

ta1101 in September

7680

7680

7964

227520

7966

ta1101 in October

8270

8270

8270

8270

8768

200554

8727

the recent market trend of Zhengzhou PTA index

the figure is the recent market trend of Zhengzhou PTA index. (picture source: Beijing medium term Wenhua Finance)

II. Basic information of upstream raw materials

1. The fluctuation of international crude oil range is difficult to shake the upward trend of PTA fluctuation

since October, US crude oil has been consolidated above $80/barrel, which has brought some support to the rise of PTA. However, with the unexpected announcement of the increase of deposit and loan interest rates by the people's Bank of China on October 19, what matters need to be paid attention to? Pushed up the dollar and raised concerns that demand for raw materials might slow. Crude oil futures in New York fell below $80 a barrel on October 19, down 4%, the largest one-day percentage decline in eight months. However, as the report showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory fell and the dollar weakened, crude oil rebounded in the decline and stood at $80/barrel again, which formed a certain cost support for PTA

pta main contract and New York crude oil have different performance characteristics, and the comparison chart of market price trend

the figure shows the comparison chart of PTA main contract and New York crude oil closing price trend. (picture source: Beijing medium term Wenhua Finance)

2. The upward fluctuation of raw material PX has formed a good cost support for PTA

since October, due to the shutdown and maintenance of Dalian Fujia Dahua 700000 ton/year PX device, the estimated shutdown time is about 10 days, and CNOOC Huizhou 840000 ton/year PX device due to the unstable operation of fault load, PX has soared, although the Current hype about the shutdown event has come to an end, However, the current PX price remains above $1200/ton. As of October 26, the FOB South Korea PX price climbed to USD/ton. The sharp rise of PX has also locked the falling space of PTA to a certain extent

in addition, judging from the profit of PTA production enterprises, the PTA processing profit calculated by PX fluctuates sharply, with a minimum of 716 yuan/ton and a high of 1433 yuan/ton. During October, the PTA plant load was maintained at a high start-up rate of%, and the average daily start-up rate in October was 83.7%. Compared with the average daily operating rate in September, the oversupply situation has changed with the arrival of the autumn and winter clothing production and consumption peak season in the downstream, which also laid a foundation for the future rise of PTA

pta and PX spot prices and PTA production profit and loss trend chart

the figure shows PTA and PX spot prices and PTA production profit and loss trend chart. (picture source: North 4. In a clean environment without corrosive media and electromagnetic interference around; mid Beijing)

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